What I'm Watching: Q2 2026 Indicators

I track a small list of indicators every quarter. Not the broad national headlines - those have almost no signal for what's actually happening in Bellevue or Sammamish. Local data, weekly cadence, three or four numbers that move ahead of the rest of the market.

Here's what I'm watching in Q2 2026, and what I'd tell my clients to pay attention to.

1. New listings vs. pending sales (the leading edge).

The single best near-term indicator I track is the ratio of new listings to pending sales week-over-week. When new listings consistently outpace pendings, inventory is building - usually 30-45 days before the headline numbers register a slowdown. When pendings outpace new listings, inventory is tightening.

Right now on the Eastside, we're tracking roughly even - with a slight tilt toward more new listings in the entry-level segment. That's why I think the under-$900K segment is going to keep softening through summer.

2. Mortgage rate movement (and what it actually does).

Rates matter, but probably less than people think. The buyers I see most affected by a 0.5% rate movement are first-time buyers near the edge of qualification - for them, every 25 basis points moves their max offer by tens of thousands. For move-up buyers and luxury buyers, the rate matters less than the inventory and the home itself.

The bigger signal in rate data is direction. A market expecting rates to fall sees buyers wait. A market expecting rates to rise sees buyers rush. Right now, rate expectations are choppy, and that translates into uneven buyer urgency - some weeks feel hot, some feel cold, and the average is moderate.

3. New construction pipeline.

The Eastside's new construction pipeline matters because it's the closest thing to a release valve on tight inventory. I'm specifically watching three places: the East Lake Sammamish corridor in Redmond, the build-out around Issaquah Highlands, and the higher-density transit-oriented projects near the new light rail stops.

Permitted units in 2025 were the highest in the cycle. Most of those projects deliver in 2026-2027. If you're a buyer who's flexible on new versus existing, the next 12 months will likely be the best new-construction window in years.

4. Days-on-market drift.

The last indicator is the simplest: how long are homes sitting? I track median DOM by city and by price band, weekly. Right now, Bellevue mid-market DOM is at 14 days, Sammamish at 11, Kirkland at 16, Redmond at 13, Issaquah at 17. Those are healthy numbers - not blistering hot, not stalling.

The number to watch is when DOM in any one city pushes past 21 days for two weeks running. That's usually when sellers start reducing prices and buyers start regaining leverage.

What this means for you.

If you're a buyer, the data says: this is one of the more balanced markets we've had in a while. You can be selective. Pre-inspections matter on the right home, not every home. Don't write off the first-time buyer segment - it's softening in your favor.

If you're a seller, the data says: precision pricing matters more than ever. The "list low and let multiples drive it up" play is harder to land than it was a year ago. Talk to me before you set the number.

I send the longer version of this update to subscribers of The Service Weekly every Wednesday. If you want the data, the chart, and what I'm actually telling clients each week, that's the place.